#376 What Will We Fix in 2023? Jim & Richard's Predictions

2022 was another year of COVID-induced anxiety with widespread worries about democracy, polarization, climate change and threats to democracy. But in this new year special Richard and Jim say we have reached peak fear. America may well be calming down and headed towards a new sense of normal. Our co-hosts throw caution to the wind with a series of fresh outside-the-box forecasts for the twelve months to come.

We make predictions about the retreat of COVID, the outlook for inflation, and the migration crisis on the southern border that threatens havoc for the Administration. Hear what could happen next in Ukraine's war against Russian aggression. We also look closely at China's new struggles with COVID, street protests, and slowing growth.

In a special section on technology and science, we focus on stunning advances in cancer and Alzheimer treatments plus new innovations in AI and the likely impact of ChatGTP, the app that's just been released to the public and is already raising ethical issues for schools, universities and employers.

We promise to release a scorecard of how we did at the end of the year. Is Jim right when he says there is a real likelihood of a new energy crisis in 2023?

Is Richard's forecast about the 2024 Presidential race on target?

Jim and Richard also share their year end hopes for the new year and recommendations.

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#375 The Costs of Culture Wars: Curiosity at Risk. Deborah Appleman

In some ways our culture is less tolerant and more fragile than it once was. The teaching of literature in schools and colleges is often caught in the crossfire of the culture wars. Support for canceling books and authors by the illiberal left and demands to ban books from the reactionary right have led to the removal of important literature from classrooms and libraries. 

In this episode author and literature professor Deborah Appleman mounts a rousing case for teaching troubled texts in troubling times. "Our classrooms need to remain a space where critical thinking is taught, tolerance from different viewpoints is modeled, and the sometimes-harsh truth of our history and literary heritage are not hidden," she says. Her latest book is "Literature and The New Culture Wars."

Professor Appleman taught high school English for nine years before receiving her doctorate from the University of Minnesota. She is chair of Educational Studies at Carleton College. Her recent research has focused on teaching college-level language and literature courses to the incarcerated.

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#374 Our Electricity Grid is Surprisingly Fragile: Meredith Angwin

Every day Americans take the reliable supply of electricity for granted. Except during severe storms, we rarely, if ever, think that the lights might not turn on in the morning.

But in some parts of the country, consumers face the threat of rolling blackouts, and sudden surges in the price of electricity. Nearly two years ago, nearly 300 people died when the Texas power grid partially failed during a winter cold snap. California came close to a grid collapse last summer. And New England might be in big trouble this coming winter.

Energy analyst, author, and chemist, Meredith Angwin, is our guest in this episode of "How Do We Fix It?" Her latest book is “Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of our Electric Grid.”

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#373 Democracy: The Voters Verdict. Layla Zaidane and David Meyers

We have a 2022 post-election show with a twist. Instead of focusing on which party is up or down, we open the hood and examine the engine of our democracy. Voters delivered a clear verdict: Most election deniers were defeated as many voters, especially independents, split their ballots, and shunned the extremes.

Our guests are Layla Zaidane, President and CEO of Millennial Action Project— the nation's largest nonpartisan organization of young lawmakers— and David Meyers, founding Executive Editor of the democracy newsletter, The Fulcrum.

In the days before the election, the media was full of warnings, and perhaps some hyperbole, about the perilous state of American democracy. Both of our guests and podcast co-hosts agree that many of the results were reassuring for the guardrails of the electoral system.

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#372 Fixing the Housing Affordability Crisis. Ed Glaeser

No other issue has greater potential for common ground than America's housing affordability crisis. Progressives and conservatives alike agree that for far too many Americans there is a critical shortage of available homes.

Since COVID erupted in 2020 the costs of apartment rentals and homes to buy have soared. According to the real estate firm Zillow, average U.S. home prices doubled in the past decade. In recent months mortgage rates went up to levels not seen in nearly two decades. With the growing possibility of a recession in the near future, there is no shortage of pessimism in the housing market today.

We discuss solutions to the housing mess with Harvard University economist Ed Glaeser, author of "Rethinking Federal Housing Policy: How to Make Housing Plentiful and Affordable", "Survival of the City: Living and Thriving in an Age of Isolation" and many other books.

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#371 Homecoming: The Case for a Post-Global World with Rana Foroohar

For much of the past fifty years, American political leaders of both parties have assumed that globalization and free trade would lead to more opportunity, higher living standards and increased business efficiency.

But our guest, author and Financial Times columnist, Rana Foroohar, argues that with supply chain disruptions and growing economic insecurity in much of the world, the long reign of globalization is coming to end. A shift to more resilient and local businesses is now at hand. We discuss the reporting and findings in the brand new book, "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post-Global World."

"I think the pendulum of the old way is tapped out," Rana tells us. "Cheap money is over. Cheap labor from China is largely over. Cheap energy from Russia is definitely over."

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#370 They Changed Our Minds. Alina Chan and Jonathan Rauch

How do you tell the difference between truth and lies? The answer involves a careful process of seeking knowledge that may contradict our long held beliefs. In this episode, our hosts share two conversations with expert guests who changed Jim and Richard's minds about how they approach topics central to our understanding of politics, science and society.

Journalist and scholar Jonathan Rauch is the author of the best-selling book, "The Constitution of Knowledge". He makes a stirring case for the social system of checks and balances used by scientists, lawyers, business leaders and researchers to turn disagreements into verifiable facts.

Alina Chan is a Canadian molecular biologist specializing in gene therapy and cell engineering at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, where she is a postdoctoral fellow. Chan is the co-author of "Viral: The Search for the Origin of COVID-19."

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#369 Junk Science in the American Criminal Justice System. M. Chris Fabricant

No one will ever know how many innocent people have been sent to prison because of junk science and flawed forensics. In this episode, we hear from Innocence Project attorney M. Chris Fabricant about how America’s broken and racist criminal justice system often relies on bogus scientific evidence for convictions.

Chris is the author of the new book, “Junk Science and the American Criminal Justice System.” Best-selling writer John Grisham calls it an “intriguing and beautifully crafted book that …illustrates how wrongful convictions occur.”

We explore the urgent need to fix the system and improve the quality of evidence presented in courtrooms. Independent crime labs are among the solutions that we discuss.

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#368 Clean, Green, Affordable Energy: Jim Meigs

Energy prices have skyrocketed this year. Rolling blackouts are still a threat in California, and as winter approaches Europe is facing a full-blown crisis that may cause widespread suffering, factory closures and a deep recession.

Angered by the West's support of Ukraine, Russia has shut down supplies of natural gas that European nations had relied on for decades to heat homes and run industry. The EU, United Kingdom and others are now scrambling to find new supplies and reassure their citizens that the crisis can be contained. In this episode we discuss efforts to reduce carbon emissions and consider why the outlook for affordable energy has deteriorated.

Our podcast co-host Jim Meigs is the expert source for this episode. He argues that shutting down nuclear power plants, having unrealistic expectations of solar and wind production, and ignoring years of threats from Russia have all contributed to the energy crisis.

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Richard and Jim's Quick Announcement

Starting this week we will publish new shows every other Thursday. After seven-plus years of being a weekly podcast, Jim and Richard decided that we need a little more time and love to make and share each new show.

We will also be sharing more details on our newsletter sent to friends and free subscribers of our podcast. You can sign up for regular updates right here on the website. Unlike substack and other independent publications, our solutions journalism podcast is entirely free.

If you'd like to support us, please go to our funding page at Patreon.

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#367 Trump, Power Politics, Populism & Democracy. Darrell West

The recent controversy about the seizure of classified government documents at Mar-a-Lago is only the latest example of outrage over former President Trump's behavior, and the responses to it. But the forces shaking American democracy didn't begin with Trump's arrival on the political scene.

We learn why populism, polarization and other threats to public institutions will likely last for the foreseeable future. Our guest, Darrell West, vice president of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C., is the author of "Power Politics: Trump and the Assault on American Democracy." He's the author of 19 books on American politics and has won several prestigious awards for his writing.

In this episode we discuss why the grievances exploited by Trump that existed well before he became president, the threat of extreme authoritarianism, the role played by technological and social media, and Darrell West's constructive advice for protecting people, organizations and the country from challenges to democracy.

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#366 Democracy Reform: Ranked-Choice Voting. Rob Richie

Ranked-choice voting (RCV) is a promising way to boost electoral turnout, reduce polarization, and cut the public cost of running elections. This relatively new reform is now being used in 55 states, cities and counties. In August, Alaska implemented ranked-choice voting for the first time since a 2020 referendum revamped its elections.

Our guest, Rob Richie, President and CEO of FairVote, makes the case for how it works and why RCV is a viable way to improve electoral politics. Right now, he says, we are in this "incredibly intense winner-take-all environment" in most states. Ranked-choice voting could change the equation.

Instead of picking just one candidate, voters rank as many candidates as they want in order of choice: first, second, third and so on. If your first-choice candidate is in last place, your vote counts for your highest-ranked candidate who can win by getting more than 50%. RCV removes voters' concerns that their favored candidate could split the vote.

Alaska and Maine now use RCV for all presidential and congressional elections. Beginning in 2023, Hawai will use it for some federal and local elections. Open primaries and ranked-choice voting will be on the ballot this November in Nevada.

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#365 Democracy Reform: Propositions & Ballot Initiatives. Jenna Spinelle

The promise and perils of direct democracy are at the heart of the debate over voter propositions and ballot initiatives. They have emerged as one way that citizens in more than two dozen U.S. states can vote directly on policy and bring issues they care about to their fellow voters.

This episode is inspired by the recent podcast series, "When The People Decide", from The McCourtney Institute for Democracy. The show's producer, writer, and host, Jenna Spinelle, tells the stories of some remarkable people who have organized initiative campaigns across the country. We speak with her about the history of ballot measures, including California's Prop 13 in 1978, and more recent efforts to expand Medicaid.

Ballot initiatives are "a very powerful tool that citizens have, particularly when there is broad support for change to an existing policy or law", Jenna tells us. Over the past four decades in California and elsewhere the political establishment has been frequently shaken by the results.

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#364 What Personal Passion and Purpose Bring To Our Lives

World-renowned author and scientist Neil deGrasse Tyson became fascinated with astrophysics when he was a teenager. Best-selling science writer Mary Roach is known for her quirky humor and wide-eyed curiosity as she explores the often bizarre science of human behavior.

This episode includes six unique perspectives about passion, purpose and meaning in our own lives.

Investment advisor and wealth manager Karen Firestone shares a story about a chance encounter with advice columnist Ann Landers, who gave her a new understanding of risk vs. reward. Obstetrician-gynecologist Rose Gowen speaks about her mission to get her small city with a large obesity problem to exercise more and eat better food. Emily Esfahani Smith, author of "The Power of Meaning", talks about her passion for learning from strangers. Long distance trucker Finn Murphy reveals a long-time love of America's roads and highways.

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#363 Framing Is Vital For Survival. Kenneth Cukier and Francis de Véricourt

From pandemics, populism and climate change, AI and ISIS, inflation and growing tensions with China and Russia, we are faced with enormous challenges— some of which threaten our existence.

In this episode we discuss how we are all influenced by our personal perspectives and prejudices— our frames— and how we can use mental models to see patterns, solve problems and go beyond a narrow lens of red vs. blue or "us" vs. "them."

Our guests are Kenneth Cukier, deputy executive editor of "The Economist" and Francis de Véricourt, professor of management science at the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin. Both are co-authors of "Framers. Human Advantage in an Age of Technology and Turmoil." This innovative book shows how framing is not just a way to improve decision-making in an age of algorithms and machine learning, but also a matter for survival at a time of upheaval.

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#362 Common Ground. The People vs. Congress: JP Thomas, Gail Hoffman

American voters are deeply dissatisfied with the government in Washington. They feel shut out of Congressional deliberations. We discuss a promising new initiative that helps engage citizens much more directly in the work of Congress and state legislatures.

While Congressional gridlock has reached a new high, groundbreaking new research that we report on in this episode shows that the American people are far less polarized than elected officials. There is extensive bipartisan common ground on a surprising range of controversial issues— from abortion and immigration to the environment and law enforcement.

Our guests are Gail Hoffman, President of The Hoffman Group, a public affairs strategist and consultant for the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland, and Voice of the People. She has served in federal and state government, including in the Clinton White House and in the U.S. Justice Department under Attorney General Janet Reno. JP Thomas is Voice of the People's Director of External Relations, and an organizer and government relations professional, who develops campaigns and strategies to promote the use of public consultation to consult citizens on key public policy issues.

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#361 The Fight to Save Discarded Places: Michelle Wilde Anderson

Neighborhood, local and regional inequality has been overlooked too long. In this episode we visit four cities and towns with deep poverty and gutted public services— where entire communities are struggling to hold on.

Our guest is Michelle Wilde Anderson, a professor of property, local government and environmental justice at Stanford Law School. Her new book is "The Fight to Save the Town: Reimagining Discarded America".

"We have given up on many of these places", Michelle tells us. Discarded America is "a term that describes active decision making."

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#360 The Science of Polarization. Peter Coleman

The January 6th hearings are a reminder of the impact of hatred for the other side and toxic polarization. We are rigidly divided by our politics, Facebook and other social media sites, and by news media. Nearly half of us have stopped talking with someone about political topics as a result of what they said in person or online. Our culture of contempt is dividing us all and making America ungovernable.

How do we use science and proven methods to reduce toxic polarization and push back against conflict entrepreneurs? This episode presents a way forward.

We repeat this episode with Peter Coleman, who is a leading expert on intractable conflict and sustainable peace. Peter is a professor of psychology and education at Columbia University and director of the Morton Deutsch International Center for Cooperation and Conflict Resolution. Peter's new book is "The Way Out. How to Overcome Toxic Polarization."

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#359 Inflation! Recession? Untangling the Economy. Megan McArdle

Inflation is through the roof. Stocks are through the floor. Most economists say that a recession is likely to hit soon or is already here. Add to this the economic impact of the Ukraine invasion, an entitlements crisis with the possible bankruptcy of Medicare and Social Security trust funds in the coming years, and today's weird housing market.

In this episode, we discuss all these, plus the tough choices now facing the Federal Reserve, political dysfunction in Washington, disruption of global supply chains, and the roots of the inflation crisis.

Our guest is Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle, the author of "The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well is the Key to Success."

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#358 Why America Needs Good Conflict: Amanda Ripley

In recent weeks the great American divide grew again. Explosive revelations from the House January 6th Hearings and Supreme Court decisions on abortion, guns and the EPA's ability to limit carbon emissions from power plants are further examples of where the middle has been weakened. On many media platforms nuance is replaced by taunts and jeers.

Our nation is trapped in high conflict. Both sides are paralyzed by fear and anger as they demonize and misunderstand the actions and motivations of the other. The bitter national narrative of "us versus them" is a threat to democracy and stops Congress and other public institutions from working together to build a better world.

Best-selling author and investigative journalist, Amanda Ripley, is our guest in this repeat episode. She is well-known for her writing in The Atlantic, Time, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, and many other publications. We discuss her groundbreaking book, “High Conflict: Why We Get Trapped and How We Get Out."

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